ODIODI · 23 Jul 2026 · ICC Cricket World Cup League Two 2023-27
NepalvNetherlands
shaded band = too-close-to-call zone (44% to 56%)
Elo, our prediction engine · pre-toss model v1.0-20260709-odi-k96-pretoss, generated 17 Jul 2026. For entertainment and analysis; past performance does not guarantee outcomes.
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Elo's take
The model makes a rigorous call: Nepal at 62%. Ball-by-ball simulations project Nepal around 225 (likely range 141 to 299) and Netherlands around 212 (113 to 276) batting first. Key matchup: RE van der Merwe has removed DS Airee 2 times in 18 balls while conceding 25 (SR 139). Form: Nepal won 3 of their last 5; Netherlands won 0 of their last 5. Gulsan Jha leads the fantasy board (projected 86 points, ceiling 151). Differential watch: RE van der Merwe carries a 73% shot at a 50+ point game.
Number crunching
- Nepal lead the last 5 meetings 3-2.
- Nepal have won 4 of their last 5; Netherlands have won 2 of their last 5.
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