T20T20I · 24 Jul 2026 · Example fixture (illustrative)
AustraliavNew Zealand
Elo's pre-toss call. The full probability and reasoning are below.
shaded band = too-close-to-call zone (45% to 55%)
Elo, our prediction engine · pre-toss model v1.0-20260709-t20-k96-pretoss, generated 19 Jul 2026. For entertainment and analysis; past performance does not guarantee outcomes.
Why this call
- Elo rating edgeAUSAustralia
- Named XI qualityAUSAustralia
- Venue and chasingAUSAustralia
- Recent form
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Elo's take
The model makes a rigorous call: Australia at 65%. Ball-by-ball simulations project Australia around 199 (likely range 116 to 257) and New Zealand around 178 (124 to 219) batting first. Melbourne Cricket Ground leans chase: 63% of 20 decided games went to the side batting second. Key matchup: MR Marsh takes BV Sears for 49 off 18 (SR 272), dismissed 0 times. Form: Australia won 5 of their last 5; New Zealand won 3 of their last 5. MR Marsh leads the fantasy board (projected 106 points, ceiling 204). Differential watch: AM Hardie carries a 54% shot at a 50+ point game.
Number crunching
- Australia lead the last 10 meetings 8-2.
- Australia have won 4 of their last 5; New Zealand have won 2 of their last 5.
- Chasing sides win 63% of T20I games at Melbourne Cricket Ground; par first innings is about 143.
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