ODIODI · 27 Jul 2026 · ICC Cricket World Cup League Two 2023-27
NamibiavNepal
Elo's pre-toss call. The full probability and reasoning are below.
shaded band = too-close-to-call zone (44% to 56%)
Elo, our prediction engine · pre-toss model v1.0-20260709-odi-k96-pretoss, generated 21 Jul 2026. For entertainment and analysis; past performance does not guarantee outcomes.
Why this call
- Elo rating edgeNEPNepal
- Named XI qualityNEPNepal
- Venue and chasingNAMNamibia
- Rest and schedulingNEP
The model's own signed feature attributions for this match, strongest first, grouped from its 25 inputs. They explain the learned component of the call; the shipped probability also blends an Elo-only baseline and is then calibrated.
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Elo's take
The model makes a rigorous call: Nepal at 64%. Ball-by-ball simulations project Namibia around 191 (likely range 116 to 258) and Nepal around 195 (121 to 256) batting first. Key matchup: R Trumpelmann has removed RK Paudel 3 times in 40 balls while conceding 21 (SR 52). Form: Namibia won 5 of their last 5; Nepal won 3 of their last 5. MG Erasmus leads the fantasy board (projected 96 points, ceiling 176). Differential watch: Gulsan Jha carries a 73% shot at a 50+ point game.
Number crunching
- Namibia lead the last 7 meetings 5-2.
- Namibia have won 2 of their last 5; Nepal have won 4 of their last 5.
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