T20CPL · 30 Aug 2026 · St Kitts And Nevis Patriots vs Antigua And Barbuda Falcons, 21st Match, Caribbean Premier League 2026
SNPSt Kitts and Nevis PatriotsvABFAntigua and Barbuda Falcons
Warner Park · Basseterre, St Kitts
Live win-probability is the main event here
Franchise T20 is close to a coin flip before the toss, so Elo keeps the pre-match call deliberately cautious. The sharp, moving read is the live win-probability once play begins; it updates every ball.
shaded band = too-close-to-call zone (36% to 64%)
Elo, our prediction engine · pre-toss model v1.0-20260709-t20-k96-pretoss, generated 17 Jul 2026. For entertainment and analysis; past performance does not guarantee outcomes.
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Elo's take
The model abstains: 52% is inside the coin-flip zone where history says these games are unpredictable. Ball-by-ball simulations project St Kitts and Nevis Patriots around 171 (likely range 118 to 224) and Antigua and Barbuda Falcons around 169 (103 to 220) batting first. Key matchup: Waqar Salamkheil has removed AGS Gous 2 times in 18 balls while conceding 21 (SR 117). Form: St Kitts and Nevis Patriots won 2 of their last 5; Antigua and Barbuda Falcons won 2 of their last 5. FA Allen leads the fantasy board (projected 73 points, ceiling 148). Differential watch: Imad Wasim carries a 59% shot at a 50+ point game.
Number crunching
- All square in the last 4 meetings: 2-2.
- St Kitts and Nevis Patriots have won 2 of their last 5; Antigua and Barbuda Falcons have won 2 of their last 5.
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