ODIODI · 29 Jul 2026 · ICC Cricket World Cup League Two 2023-27
NepalvNetherlands
Elo's pre-toss call. The full probability and reasoning are below.
shaded band = too-close-to-call zone (44% to 56%)
Elo, our prediction engine · pre-toss model v1.0-20260709-odi-k96-pretoss, generated 26 Jul 2026. For entertainment and analysis; past performance does not guarantee outcomes.
Why this call
- Elo rating edgeNEPNepal
- Named XI qualityNETNetherlands
- Venue and chasingNEPNepal
- Rest and scheduling
The model's own signed feature attributions for this match, strongest first, grouped from its 25 inputs. They explain the learned component of the call; the shipped probability also blends an Elo-only baseline and is then calibrated.
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Elo's take
The model makes a rigorous call: Nepal at 62%. Ball-by-ball simulations project Nepal around 226 (likely range 139 to 299) and Netherlands around 213 (113 to 275) batting first. Key matchup: RE van der Merwe has removed DS Airee 2 times in 18 balls while conceding 25 (SR 139). Form: Nepal won 2 of their last 5; Netherlands won 2 of their last 5. Gulsan Jha leads the fantasy board (projected 86 points, ceiling 154). Differential watch: S Lamichhane carries a 72% shot at a 50+ point game.
Number crunching
- Nepal lead the last 5 meetings 3-2.
- Nepal have won 4 of their last 5; Netherlands have won 2 of their last 5.
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